Sunday, July 31, 2011

FJM a Colby Rasmus article

Before I start on some fun (at least for me), let me first say that you need to know about the blog Fire Joe Morgan, a site dedicated to making fun of horrible articles that lack logic and comprehension skills.  You can probably figure out why they are titled the way they are.  Anyway, the blog has been extinct for about two years unfortunately.  Anyway, I'm attempting their style on a clearly inexcusable article that lacks logic.  Here's the full article if you wish:

Two days after the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus and his dad, scouts, GM’s and other baseball insiders have weighed in, and the landslide opinion is the Cardinals made a long term mistake for short term gain and did not get enough for Rasmus. 
Wait, the Cardinals traded Colby's dad, their scouts, GMs, and baseball insiders... wait no nevermind.  That was a confusing sentence.  Also it's a run-on sentence.  Yeah that's pretty much exactly the consensus opinion though.

  I say those people are living in fantasy-land and Mozeliak did just fine with this trade. 
That's funny because you just called almost everyone reading this article dumb.  Or mentally insane.  Fantasy land can mean a lot of things all of which are negative.  So basically you start the article insulting pretty much all of your readers.  Well done.

I’d like to hear one trade Mo turned down as the deadline approached that addressed more of the Cardinals needs than this one.
What a dumb thing to say.  First of all, this assumes Colby Rasmus absolutely without a doubt had to be traded.  I'll stretch logic on that one and say he absolutely did.  How the hell are we supposed to know what other offers Mozeliak got?  Seriously, if that information is somehow public, direct me there now.

It addressed starting pitching, relief pitching, and the Patterson addition avoids the subtracting depth issue.
Oh great guys.  We replaced Colby Rasmus with Jon Jay and Jon Jay with Corey Patterson.  Even if you believe Jay is equal to Rasmus (and I don't), Patterson is in no universe equal to Jon Jay.  So by definition, we subtracted depth.  Not to mention, Patterson is the worst major league baseball player.  He has a .292 on base percentage with minimal power as a corner outfielder.  He can play centerfield too, but he's mostly a corner outfielder.  For those who love average, he has a .253 average so that sucks too.

The criticism of the deal is all based on the “Potential” of Rasmus.  Potential.  Something we have seen a very brief glimpse of at the major league level and maybe a smaller one in 4 seasons at the minor league level.
Heh.  I wish that was the only reason for criticism.  Nah, Colby has also - and this is something that escapes so many people for some reason - proven to play out some of his potential.  Did everybody go in a coma in 2010?  Seriously, I feel like his 2010 season never happened.  He batted .276 with a .361 on base percentage and 23 homers.  That is not something you can just give up for a rental and spare parts.

A lot of them are also ignoring another major factor and that is what’s between Colby’s ears and who seems to have a Darth Vader like control of it
He just put that statement there without any evidence.  I'd like for that to be on the record. There is no evidence that Tony Rasmus has that much control over Colby.  And apparently, Tony Rasmus is out to ruin his son's career by devastatingly giving him bad advice.  It works in 2010, nobody gives a shit.  It doesn't work in 2011, all of a sudden he's the devil.

Does he appear to have all the tools to be great? At times, yes.  But when has he shown it consistently enough for someone to believe that’s the everyday player he will become.  At some point potential takes a back seat to what you know.
2010 Season.  Wonder how much I'll have to reference this.  Go look at his stats and unless you think strikeouts really are the devil, you really won't find anything to support the fact that he wasn't an everyday player last year.  He was a well above average player actually.  Great, I might even say.  Here's where he gives us "reality checks."  This oughta be rich...

 Rasmus is a career .258 hitter (1445 plate appearances) in 2 and a half seasons in the majors. He hit .277 (1776 Plate appearances) in the minors.
Wow!  Referencing just his average?  Really?  What is this 2001?  Rasmus is so valuable in so many ways, none of which are reflected in average because average, by itself, tells us almost nothing.  It doesn't tell us how much he gets on base, how much power he has, or how many homers he has.  Is Yadier Molina a better hitter than Albert Pujols is?  No, not even the author thinks this.  Yet, here is referencing average by itself.  Good job.


He has struck out 332 times in the bigs, 348 in the minors.
Who gives a shit?

144 walks in the majors, 200 in the minors.  His slugging % is .442 with the Cardinals, .485 in the minors 
You do know that 144 walks in just 1,500 plate appearances is good for walking about 10% of your plate appearances right?  Which is amazing.  Well, not quite amazing.  His nearly 12% walk rate the last two years however are amazing.  Pujols has a 13.2% career walk rate and Holliday a 9.3% career walk rate.  Wait, isn't this argument supposed to be against Rasmus?  Just clarifying here.  Also I have no idea what is wrong with a centerfielder slugging .442.  Jon Jay, who I'm sure you love, has a .440 slugging percentage.  Seriously you are hurting your own argument.

 But he has potential right?
But you just... said... what?  How is...?   Readers... you... understand?

 Beyond the numbers, there is Daddy Rasmus and Colby’s grey matter.  Tony Rasmus has been on message boards and publicly criticizing the Cardinals since Colby was in the minors. 
True.  Wonder how this is supposed to affect Rasmus the player though since it clearly didn't last year when Tony was the loudest.  In fact, I haven't heard from Tony this year.

And you know Colby has had to hear the same thing from him.  That’s not good.  Now that Daddy Rasmus has unloaded and held nothing back since the trade, is there any doubt in anyone’s mind that Colby had no chance winning the battle between the two Tony’s? 
Winning the battle?  What are they arguing about?  The organization said, publicly, that they would allow Rasmus to work with outside help aka Tony Rasmus.  So apparently, Tony put up a white flag?

Colby is a 24 year-old kid that apparently can’t think for himself.  Even Toronto’s GM has or will reach out to Daddy Rasmus to figure out how to deal with Colby.  Are you serious? He’s 24, If he is that sensitive and hard to figure out, does he really have the mental toughness to be a star? Time for Colby to grow up. 
Well, you're the one who said he can't think for himself.  He obviously can.  Unless you're implying Tony has mind control chips inside of Colby's head?  If so, then your argument is valid.  Alex  Anthropolus (should I be surprised you either didn't bear to learn his name or were too lazy to spell it?) reached out to Tony Rasmus to make it clear that they were ok with him helping his son.  Something the Cards... weren't so clear about.  The Cards stance was more "You can work with Tony... but if you fail, we'll hold a grudge against you" and judging by the trade THEY DID.

And secondly, never understood why Colby needed to be a star in order to stay on our team.  Is 2010 season Colby not good enough?  Colby kind of does need to grow up, but hello it's the managers job to help him grow up.  Tony seems sort of like a hostile manager that has one certain specific way of managing and if you don't adhere to that philosophy, you're left in the dust.  Brendan Ryan?  (By the way, that trade has turned out awful)  Well, since it's now the 21st century and Generation X is coming in who were all "coddled," it's time for a manager to start adjusting to his player's personalities and helping them grow up.

Jon Jay has outplayed Rasmus for a shot as the everyday Center Fielder
True.  But does anyone actually think that will continue?  Colby goes 2-4 with a homer and a walk.  Are you surprised?  Probably not.  Jon Jay does the same.  Now are you surprised?  Most likely.  Colby does that in his sleep.  Jay walks a below average amount of the time and has decent, not great power.

The biggest difference between the two players is Colby has more power for the long ball, but Jay is hitting .310 with  a .440 slugging % and has just 13 RBI fewer than Rasmus in 89 fewer plate appearances than Colby
Well, I gave up on RBIs as a statistic to use to prove the worth of someone.  Mostly because it has nothing to do with the power of a hitter.  It is completely dependent on luck.  Better stat?  RISP.  Jay has a .716 OPS compared to Rasmus .772.  Colby just has more power in general.  His isolated power (difference between a hitter's slugging percentage and average - meant to try show raw power since slugging is largely dependent on average) is .180 as compared to .128 for Jon Jay.

Jay’s defense has been better than Rasmus’s.  
 Well, that's purely opinionated.  Although most metrics agree with you.  Wish you would have referenced those metrics.  It's not hard.

(One note off the reality check – Here’s a “what if” no one is tossing around.  What if Jay develops into an all-star?  There is only a 17-month age difference between the two.  Is it still a bad deal?)
What if Tyler Greene becomes an average player?  It could happen, sure, but it's not exactly something we should depend on.  Also 17 month age difference is missing the point a little.  One is 24-years-old, was a hot shot prospect, had one great year, and is in a massive slump.  The other is 26-years-old who quietly moved through the system with pretty mediocre numbers and then shocked everyone with his MLB performance.  I think this is Jay's potential and not to be an All-Star.  Realistically, does anyone see Jon Jay getting much better than this?

Sometimes the marriage between a player and an organization just does not work. It happens.  That’s life.  Even between good organizations and good players (and Rasmus has just been average, not good). It’s ok and also a smart move to know when to move on.  I think the Cardinals were finally at the move on point.
True.  Again.  I just don't understand why they HAD to move on here.  For a package that was of lesser value than Rasmus.  Rasmus has been good.  2010 SEASON!!!!  STOP IGNORING IT PEOPLE!

Why are we to assume that only the Cardinals know the whole story.  In the sports world, that’s just not the case.  Other teams know the numbers.  Other teams know about Daddy Rasmus.  It’s just other teams often believe they can fix what one or more teams couldn’t 
Do you have some sort of fetish or something?  Do you like calling people Daddy?  What the hell, why are you treating Colby like he's 5.  FIX WHAT?  OH MY GOD.  Sometimes, teams just have to be patient with a hitter.  Have you never heard of slump?  Colby was basically having his 2010 season when July 1 came along and then from then on he was in a massive slump.  Longer than normal yes but it was still a slump.  And when Colby starts hitting in Toronto, you shall see.

Sometimes it works, a lot of times it doesn’t.  Why would another team willing pay top dollar when they know they are helping another team get rid of a problem? That’s foolish on their part.
Getting rid of a problem?  Were the Cardinals not in first when we traded Rasmus?  How big of a problem was he realistically?  Apparently not enough to make the team bad or even awful.  I'd like to know how he was a problem.  Tony Rasmus?  That's a problem.  But does any of the team actually care about that?  The problem was that he was causing the manager too much work.  I'm sure the Jays are happy to oblige and give him all the work he needs.

With the uncertainty of Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright, Berkman, and more for next season ,the Cardinals needed the more immediate approach rather than long term.
Eh, well Wainwright's as good as locked up next year with a team option.  Pretty much the whole rotation is locked up as well.  We have our outfielder for next year too (Oh shit no we don't because WE TRADED ONe OF THEM).  Freese and Matt Carpenter should provide stability at 3B next year.  Molina's still catching.  The only holes now are ones that we just created with RF and the middle infield, one of which is potentially already solved with Dan Descalso.  Hell, our whole bullpen is pretty much cost-controlled.

So really there's not much uncertainty.  The word "needed" is aggravating.  We didn't need to have a more immediate approach since we are pretty set up for the future, we just chose to.

They can win this division this year
Which implies that they couldn't win it with Colby which is just asinine.  I'll skip some bullshit about how Cards fans somehow deserve this chance even though we had one of the greatest teams of the decade in the middle and won a World Series and just drove out a young centerfielder.  What city doesn't deserve it?  Well New York and Boston, but that's just stupid to bring fans into the argument.

Oh yeah, back to potential.  When six plus years of actual numbers and several years of custodial interference in his career have shown what they show, it’s time for potential to take a back seat. 
Ironic, I think.  The actual numbers show the exact opposite of what he's implying they show.  They show an above average centerfielder who is having a down year.

Let someone else find that potential and good for the Cardinals for moving on.  I hope it’s a win/win.  I hope the players the Cardinals acquired help this team to another World Series.  I hope Rasmus shines with Toronto.  If he does good for him. If he becomes what so many others think he will, it still does not make this a bad deal.  Reality sure was not going to let that happen here.

And here's what I hate about people.  He just set himself up so he cannot possibly be wrong.  Listen, here's all the reasons why I'm right and even if I'm wrong - even if my whole post is wrong - well... it wouldn't have happened here anyway so my opinion is still right.  If Rasmus shows the potential he has, holy shit this will be some kind of awful deal.  Dan Haren-esque.

Also, kudos for mentioning how we didn't make a bad deal and then not name anyone we got even once in the article.  Pretty incredible in my opinion.

No comments:

Post a Comment